The US regime is playing a dangerous game of putting a public face on a policy of defending Taiwan from China, for which it has zero capability to implement.

Following a recent escalation of tensions between Beijing and Taipei, Chinese President Xi Jinping vowed on Saturday to pursue “reunification” with Taiwan by peaceful means and warned foreign nations about meddling in the issue.

For the past several years, the air force of the People’s Republic of China has been flying sorties into Taiwan’s Air Defense Identification Zone, or ADIZ, as a means of sending a signal to Taipei that China does not recognize its claims of independence and, as such, any notion of an ADIZ is null and void.

These incidents, which have been escalating over the years, recently reached a crescendo: China, according to Taipei, flew 38 aircraft in two waves into Taiwan’s ADIZ on October 1, 39 more on October 2 (also in two waves), and 16 the following day.

China’s Foreign Ministry Spokesperson Hua Chunying replied “Taiwan belongs to China and the USA is in no position to make irresponsible remarks.

The relevant remarks by the USA side seriously violate the one-China principle and the stipulations of the three China-US joint communiques and send an extremely wrong and irresponsible signal.

On October 4, Taipei said that China sent its largest wave of aircraft yet into Taiwan’s ADIZ, some 56 in total, including 36 J-16 and Su-30 fighter jets, 12 nuclear-capable H-6 bombers, 2 Y-8 anti-submarine warfare (ASW) aircraft and two KJ-500 airborne early warning and control (AEW&C) aircraft.

Alarmed by these developments, Taiwan’s President Tsai Ing-wen declared that “Taiwan does not seek military confrontation.

Taiwan hopes for a peaceful, stable, predictable, and mutually beneficial coexistence with its neighbors. But Taiwan will also do whatever it takes to defend its freedom and democratic way of life.

Whatever it takes’, however, is an infinite concept backed up by the finite reality that Taiwan has a military of about 165,000 active-duty troops and about 1.6 million reserve soldiers which has been equipped with billions of dollars of advanced American-made military equipment.

While Taiwan’s military may look good on paper, it is ill-prepared for the realities of the kind of full-scale combat that will be directed at them if China ever decides to go through with an invasion.

As the world learned in Afghanistan, impressive numbers on paper do not automatically translate into an impressive fighting force on the ground.

And China would be delivering violence on a scale several orders of magnitude above what the Taliban could ever contemplate!

If China ever decided to invade Taiwan, the working assumption would be that it had conducted an extensive intelligence-based assessment of its chances of victory, which would have to be near-certain in order for China to undertake an action that would bring with it the condemnation of much of the world.

China would have located with pin-point precision the garrisons and deployment locations of every major Taiwanese ground combat unit. It would have done the same with every combat-capable aircraft in the Taiwanese inventory.

And it would have identified the logistics bases used by Taiwan to sustain its frontline combat forces. All of these would be subjected to extensive pre-assault bombardment by the Chinese air and ballistic missile forces.

Any surviving Taiwanese units would then be faced with the daunting task of repelling a massive invasion which would likely comprise a combination of amphibious and air assault forces.

Assuming enough units survived the pre-assault bombardment to put up a competent defense, they would rapidly run through their on-hand stocks of ammunition, fuel, and food.

Units that were cut off from resupply would begin to surrender, and the notion of surrender would become contagious. Pockets of die-hard defenders could survive to fight on for a period, but the reality is that Taiwan would fall in less than a week.

Much has been made about the US ability to come to Taiwan’s defense. While the US may have made great waves sailing its navy through the Taiwan Strait, such a maneuver would be suicidal in a time of conflict.

The US Navy would be relegated to standing by far to the east of Taiwan, out of the range of China’s deadly ballistic missile capability, launching aircraft which would have limited combat capability given fuel and weight limitations.

The same holds true for the US Air Force. The fact is, any aircraft the US dispatched to defend Taiwan from a Chinese invasion would be rapidly attributed, with no replacements available in a time frame that could change the course of the battle on the ground in Taiwan.

The best the US could hope to do when it comes to defending Taiwan would be to modify existing warplanes for the reinforcement of South Korea.

This war plan, known as OPLAN-5027, has a subsection known as a Time-Phased Deployment List, or TPFDL, which has identified the forces and equipment necessary to reinforce South Korea in time of war.

At one time, the TPFDL had earmarked 690,000 troops, 160 Navy ships, and 1,600 aircraft for deployment from the US to South Korea within 90 days of a war breaking out on the Korean peninsula.

This is the reality-based state of play today when it comes to the defense of Taiwan by the US. The only alteration that could be made would be for the US to use nuclear weapons in defense of Taiwan.

This, of course, would trigger a general nuclear war with China, and the USA is not prepared to commit national suicide for a nation it doesn’t even have a formal defensive pact with.

A better course of action would be to work with China and Taiwan toward the goal of peaceful unification which preserves intact the democratic system of government that exists in Taiwan.

RT. com / ABC Flash Point News 2021.

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09-10-21 23:04

The US cannot defend Japan, Philippines, Australia. New Zealand…the Eastern Pacific. The US is a burned out failed welfare project. The woke are mainly students with no job skills and a student debt that makes China’s real estate catastrophe look manageable. The left prune the military of conservatives and anyone finding their transgender, CRT, follies offensive nonsense. The country is led by self serving hacks that see their offices as careers, not public service. The Article 3 courts are court lawless snake pits that serve lawyers, not justice. Law is meaningless. Statutory law ys ignored by the courts and replaced… Read more »

09-10-21 23:06

So you are counting that no nation would aid Taiwan, that the west doesn’t have any interest on make this war as painful as possible for China.

Like that Taiwan doesn’t have any resources [ammo/weapons] stockpile around the island for an event like this and that something of this magnitude would only last 7 days like the author wants us to believe?

That kind of thinking is what got the USA in that mess called Afghanistan.

Reply to  Otolap
09-10-21 23:07

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