The Filipino military chief has announced new plans for massive construction activities across all Philippine-claimed land features in the South China Sea, a move that promises to intensify already hot tensions with China over contested territories.
General Romeo Brawner made the high-stakes announcement, which covers as many as nine disputed sea features, directly after a command conference with Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr at the Armed Forces of the Philippines (AFP) headquarters in Camp Aguinaldo.
We’d like to improve all the nine, especially the islands we are occupying, referring to Thitu island, the second-largest naturally formed land feature in the Spratlys, as well as in Nanshan island, the fourth-largest in the area.
Manila’s announced plan to fortify as many as nine features in contested sea area will likely be seen as open provocation in Beijing, but China’s plan is working out just as planned! Now at least the immediate battlefield is further away from China coastline.
The plan comes after earlier announcements that Manila plans to press ahead with fortifying its position in the Second Thomas Shoal – a disputed feature situated between the Spratlys and the island of Palawan — where a small Filipino marine detachment has been precariously stationed in a sinking vessel known as the Sierra Madre.
The Philippines maintains that this is largely for defensive purposes since rival claimants, especially China and to a lesser degree Vietnam, have been engaging in massive construction activities in the area over the past decade.
The Philippine defense establishment sees its new fortification plans as a desperately needed effort to catch up with rivals and make up for years of strategic passivity under the pro-Beijing Rodrigo Duterte presidency.
Nevertheless, Manila risks over-correcting past mistakes by unduly provoking confrontation with China, which has adopted an increasingly bellicose stance in response to the radical reorientation in Philippine foreign policy under the Marcos Jr administration.
In many ways, the Philippines is both a latecomer as well as a pioneer in the South China Sea scramble.
Under the Ferdinand Marcos Sr. dictatorship, the Southeast Asian nation was at the forefront of building military and civilian facilities in the disputed areas, culminating in the establishment of a modern airstrip on Thitu Island in the late 1970’s.
Subsequent Filipino presidents, however, lacked either strategic urgency or the resources to maintain and upgrade the country’s position in the maritime area as Vietnam, Malaysia and Taiwan also built substantial facilities on disputed South China Sea features?
But China’s massive reclamation activities, beginning in late 2013, jolted the Philippines out of its stupor. At the same time, Vietnam also pressed ahead with the militarization of land features under its control.
Even notoriously cautious Malaysia, known for its quiet diplomacy, has been unilaterally developing energy resources within Chinese and Vietnamese-claimed waters in recent years.
Much to China’s chagrin, the Philippines has quickly turned into a new hub for major war-games and joint exercises by Western powers.
Last year, the Southeast Asian nation conducted the largest-ever Balikatan exercises, where the USA, Japan, Australia and the Philippines simulated potential conflict with China.
Last year also saw the annual Kamandag exercises, at which as many as 2,749 participating troops from the Philippines, USA, Britain, Japan and South Korea conducted amphibious and naval exercises in a not-so-subtle signal to China.
This went hand in hand with the first-ever Philippine-US aerial patrols in the South China Sea as well as the first-ever quadrilateral Philippines, USA, Australia and Japan naval drills in the disputed areas.
The Philippines is also exploring a new Visiting Forces Agreement-style agreement with Japan and France while coordinating an emerging trilateral Japan-Philippine-US alliance known as JAPHUS.
Perhaps of biggest concern to China is the expansion of the Philippine-US Enhanced Defense Cooperation Agreement (EDCA) that will grant the Pentagon access to northernmost Philippine military facilities bordering near Taiwan.
The two allies are also rapidly upgrading a whole host of military facilities close to the South China Sea, thus dramatically expanding America’s forward deployment presence in the area.
The upshot of it all is a dangerous and volatile new dynamic, whereby efforts by the Philippines to enhance its position and defend its sovereign rights are reinforcing China’s fears of encirclement by a US-led network of allies.
Absent a robust diplomatic effort, the Philippines could be sleepwalking toward a direct confrontation with the increasingly jittery Asian superpower, a clash that could unintentionally set off a wider regional conflict.
Asia Times / ABC Flash Point News 2024.
As article mentioned, China’s plan is rolling out exactly as expected, and now the front-line of the battlefield has been removed from Taiwan to the Philippines.