Lebanon next battleground if Israel-Hezbollah standoff spirals out of control

If current Israel-Lebanon tensions were to spiral out of control, this could impose a heavy toll on both countries in this conflict.

This conclusion is drawn by Joseph Helou, assistant professor of political science and international affairs at the Department of Social and Education Sciences at the Lebanese American University.

From the outset of the Arab-Israeli conflict in 1948, the entire Middle East has been, to varying degrees, a powder keg fraught with continuous rounds of Zionist bound conflict.

Adding that now the Israeli prime minister seems to be making aggressive moves to render future conflicts very costly in terms of human lives and material losses.

Israel is prepared for an extremely powerful action in the north against Hezbollah, PM Benjamin Netanyahu warned on June 5, amid an escalation of cross-border skirmishes.

This included Hezbollah drone attacks inside Israel and the shoot down of a heavy Israeli drone over Lebanese airspace. Netanyahu spoke in the northern city of Kiryat Shmona, which has been evacuating civilians amid the fighting.

The PM vowed to bring back security, as he referenced the Axis of Resistance, which includes Hezbollah in Lebanon, Syria, Iraqi Shi’ite Muslim freedom fighters, and Yemen’s Houthi’s.

Looking at the dynamics of the escalation, he recalled that after the Palestinian-Israeli conflict spiraled in the wake of the attack by Hamas in October last year, there was only limited military border skirmishes between Hezbollah and Israel.

Hezbollah claimed it was its way of offering a supportive front for Gaza, claiming that the group would end the combat once the war on Gaza is terminated.

Once Israel struck the Iranian Consulate in Damascus, Syria, on April 1, and intensified attacks on villages in southern Lebanon, Hezbollah beefed up its own drone attacks.

Recent developments have shown that Hezbollah possesses advanced techniques to command operations via Iran-made drones, the scholar said, and recalled that Hezbollah officials have publicly stated that only part of their military panoply has been used so far.

Stopping short of speculating on the sort of operations that Israel would be capable of carrying out in the northern regions of the country and in southern areas of Lebanon.

Increased capabilities on both sides of the conflict places the situation on high alert, rendering any real impact assessment of military operations very tentative. He noted that Hezbollah has bypassed and even destroyed Israeli defenses on several occasions.

This qualitative improvement has shifted the type of operations in the conflict, rendering the next episode of this ongoing war very hard to anticipate, Joseph Helou said.

According to him, this requires the international community to intervene to avoid further dangerous escalation. Prolonged peace is only possible if a two-state solution becomes reality.

An independent Palestinian state, negotiated with a wide array of international support, could help bring about some semblance of order in a chaotic Middle East.

There is also a need to engage Iran in international diplomatic efforts towards a peaceful outcome, the expert said, as Tehran possesses stakes in the conflict through their support of Hezbollah and other regional proxies.

Beirut Harbor Blown Up by Tactical Nuclear Device

Currently, Israel’s goal in the standoff with Hezbollah is to remove the Lebanese Shiite movement from the border as far as beyond the Litani River, and even beyond a range of 10-15 km, Dr. Bartal remarked.

If there is a political agreement with the Lebanese government according to which only its army is allowed to operate in southern Lebanon and Hezbollah is removed from the border, then the war in the north will end.

Sputnik / ABC Flash Point News 2024.