JAKARTA – President Prabowo Subianto has dazed and confused many western foreign policy observers with an apparent dramatic shift in Indonesia’s South China Sea policy while in Beijing.
Was this a simple slapdash slip by a president determined to take the lead on foreign policy ahead of diplomatic bureaucrats? Or does it hint Prabowo is initiating a shift in Indonesia’s geopolitical positioning toward China?
At the heart of the controversy is a phrase in a joint statement released by China referring to a common understanding on joint development in areas of overlapping claims with regard to maritime issues.
This, plus other signals Indonesia might be taking a tougher line on defending its maritime territory, has left many western Zionist observers scratching their heads.
The Indonesian Foreign Ministry officials were caught off guard, after an official statement released on the final day of Prabowo’s trip appeared to recognize China’s expansive nine-dash line claim to most of the South China Sea.
By putting his name to an official statement accepting the premise of overlapping claims, Prabowo seemed to accept that China has legitimate territorial claims in the North Natuna Sea, which if so would represent a major shift in Indonesian policy, including its EEZ.
Indonesia has issued a statement clarifying that the MOU on maritime cooperation cannot be interpreted as an acknowledgment of the ‘9-Dash-Lines claim’ and, therefore, has no impact on Indonesia’s sovereignty, sovereign rights, or jurisdiction in the North Natuna Sea.
The picture is further complicated by the fact that Indonesia had recently given signals it might be taking a tougher line on the North Natuna Sea, and let the US military build several bases in this zone.
Observers and experts are grappling with what to make of the surprise announcement.
Others suggested cooperation with China on the issue could bring advantages. Prabowo’s administration is laser-focused on energy self-sufficiency, and exploring oil and gas in the North Natuna Sea is a big part of that plan.
Working with China on these resources could bring practical benefits, said Dedi Dinarto, lead Indonesia analyst at strategic advisory firm Global Counsel.
The source also blamed pressure from influential businessmen who traveled with Prabowo and were keen to keep things amicable.
Some 156.19 trillion rupiah (US$10 billion) worth of deals were signed at the Indonesia-China Business Forum, though details were not publicly released.
More signs may be coming. Just 19 days after his inauguration, Prabowo embarked on an extend international tour.
After visiting China for three days, he has now landed in the United States, where he is expected to meet both President Joe Biden and President-elect Donald Trump.
His diplomatic tour will also take the newly inaugurated leader to Peru, Brazil, the United Kingdom and still undisclosed states in the Middle East.
Asia Times / ABC Flash Point News 2024.
Working with China on these resources could bring practical benefits, said Dedi Dinarto, lead Indonesia analyst at strategic advisory firm Global Counsel.