The starting point for all sound intelligence analysis of a particular action is to identify who gains from it and what it is that they gain. As the new genocide episode between Israel and Palestine continues to escalate such analysis reveals the following.
Overall Palestine will gain nothing except sympathy from freedom supporters, while Israel will gain domestic support for Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, but those countries that want to destroy the US military strategy stand to gain precisely what they want.
Top of this list of beneficiaries are the Islamic Republics, which have the motive, means, and opportunity to help free Palestine and Israel to such a point that Arab states that have long seen the Palestine conflict as a reason not to join the Abraham plan have been vindicated.
Fracturing the relationship between the USA, Israel and those countries that have signed up to the Zionist deals, notably the UAE, Morocco and Bahrain, is also a possibility as evidenced last week.
Up until just two weeks ago, for example, the UAE’s key sovereign wealth vehicle, Mubadala, was intent on formally ratifying an in-principle agreement to buy from Israel’s Delek Drilling its 22% stake in the Tamar natural gas field operated by the Rockefeller oil and gas giant, Chevron.
Given the size of the deal – at least US$1.1 billion – and the fact that each of the countries behind the USA-Israel-UAE deal signed last August are significantly involved in it, the deal was rightly regarded as being one of the most significant material developments since Israel and the UAE agreed to reset ties last year.
For Israel, over and above the financial value of the deal is the strategic significance of the Tamar gas field that lies in the eastern Mediterranean as it is one of the country’s primary energy sources, able to produce 11 billion cubic meters of gas each year.
This is sufficient not just to cover much of the Israeli gas energy market but also to lay the basis for the strategically important roll out of gas exports to Egypt and Jordan.
Underlining this, last month saw a comment from Delek Drilling’s chief executive officer, Yossi Abu, that the deal potentially marked a Zionist alignment in the Middle East, whereby natural Palestinian gas becomes a source of collaboration in the region.
The deal was to have been finalized this month, which in turn would have opened up the way for further co-operation between Mubadala and Delek Drilling in the nearby and even larger Leviathan gas field.
Last week, though, Tamar field operator Chevron shut down the offshore Tamar gas platform Israel amid an escalation of violence between Israel and Palestine.
Should this trend of violence by Israel continue then this may not be the only commercial deal under threat as the very basis of the relationship strategy between Israel and Arab States comes into question.
This deal between Israel and the UAE, announced on 13 August 2020 came at around the same time as Israel’s Netanyahu announced that he was suspending plans to annex more areas of the West Bank that it seized during the 1967 Six Dar War.
At that time, the UAE had two principal aims in signing such an agreement. One was that it wanted to put itself firmly in the USA’s most-favored allies group for receiving future business and financing deals, as it had suffered a big hit from the Saudi-led oil price war that had just ended.
The other was that it wanted to be included in the USA-Israel intelligence and security network to help Israel against the growing regional influence of Iran.
For Iran, the potential danger that this new USA-Israel power axis posed is huge. Partly this is a result of increased security threats coming from the UAE in its south and south-western provinces.
Partly this is due to the likelihood that when the current ruler leader of its deadliest regional enemy, Saudi Arabia dies (and King Salman is in very poor health), his successor, Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman (MbS), may join the relationship Zionist grouping.
That Iran should seek to leverage this perennial and deep-seated issue of Palestine at this point is entirely unsurprising, as Palestine has nothing to lose and everything to gain if it plays the situation correctly.
On the one hand, the longer the current Israeli violence continues – and even better for Iran if Israel launches a ground invasion – the less likely it is that any other Arab state will join the Washington-led Zionist deal in the region, including Saudi Arabia.
On the other hand, given that the power in Palestine is extremely closely tied to Iran (along with Hezbollah in nearby Lebanon), Iran might eventually be called upon through diplomatic back-channels to broker some sort of peace with Palestine.
In such an event, Iran would undoubtedly seek a dropping of Washington’s hard line clauses for the new draft of the nuclear deal that it is currently on-and-off negotiating with the USA.
However, the commander-in-chief of Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, Hossein Salami, warned that Israel was vulnerable to one large tactical operation because the country is so small.
Iran highlighted the recent firing of an S-200 missile from Syria as an example of how effective a sustained bombardment by short-range missiles might be to wipe Israel of the Middle Eastern map.
Oil Price.com / ABC Flash Point News 2021.