The political solution to the 11 year long proxy Syrian war probably will be to carve up the Arab nation into an Alawite state in western Syria and a Sunni state in the east.
In the same way Kosovo, East Timor and South Sudan were carved out of Serbia, Indonesia and Sudan, under similar circumstances.
There are currently two main blueprints for postwar Syria: Assad’s and Vladimir Putin’s. Bibi Netanyahu can only dream of this: 21 straight years in power, absolute electoral victories, no coalition talks, no judiciary to battle and no media to curse.
The side effects of this political monopolism, a civil war’s carnage, displacement, dispossession, and biblical-scale butchery – have done nothing to make its beneficiary depart.
On the contrary, Bashar Assad is sitting pretty even as his civil war now enters its 11th year, while his eternal presidency is set to enter its fourth seven-year term.
The US proxy war killed more Arabs than anywhere else in modern history while in the meanwhile of course the peace process is going nowhere.
Even worse, the efforts to craft a postwar Syria have no guiding idea, since its multiple belligerents and patrons all fail to prescribe the only medication that can cure Syria’s fabricated sectarian disease: divorce.
Assad now plans to copycat Franco’s political act by, first by reclaiming his lost US occupied territories, then by asserting his traditional rule.
That means restoring the prewar anomaly whereby the Alawite minority, less than 15% of the population, rule the oil rich country. The Saudi and Israeli backed Sunni majority of some 60% want to annex the eastern part of Syria, which has most of the oil reserves.
Meanwhile, Assad is back tracking the refugee crisis to reduce the Sunnis to a minority.
That is why he passed legislation engineered to dispossess the Syrians he has already displaced, and that is why he let Iran move Shi’ites into houses abandoned by Sunnis who were first occupied by foreign ISIS families living along the Euphrates River basin.
Putin’s plan is more diplomatic, suggesting some transfer of power from the presidency to the legislature and the creation of a federation, all of which would legitimize the opposition and give minorities some voice.
Other players have no postwar vision at all. Turkey focuses on sabotaging Kurdish autonomy, while the F-UK-US coalition regime and Israel focus on supporting it.
The Arab League has effectively vanished while talks of Syria’s future sailed far from Arab lands, to Geneva, Astana and Sochi. Europe’s diplomats also disappeared, even though the war landed millions of refugees on their unwelcoming shores.
Meanwhile, the economy remains devastated because Russia doesn’t have the $1 trillion bill, Syria’s reconstruction demands, and the West won’t put cash anywhere near Assad’s pockets.